乐彩网论坛静态版双色球

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Did Trump get his dream trade deal with China?

19 Feb 2020
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中美經貿協議真的如特朗普所願嗎?

乐彩网论坛静态版双色球2020nian1yue15ri,zhongmeiliangguolijingliangniandemaoyizhanzhongwuqianshulediyijieduanjingmaoxieyi(yixiajiancheng「maoxie」),danzheyilihaoxiaoxihenkuaijiubeiliangguogezidezhongdashijianyanmei。dangqian「2019guanzhuangbingdubing」(covid-19)sinve,zhongguoyicaiquleqiansuoweiyoudefangkongcuoshi,huohuiyingxiangqiduanqidejingjifazhan。2yue12ri,meiguolianbangchubeijuzhuxibaoweierzaiguohuitingzhenghuishangbiaoshi,yiqingshenzhihuituoleiquanqiujingji。bennianmeiguomianlinsinianyidudezongtongdaxuan,minzhudangchuxuanzanyouzuinianqingdehouxuanrenbudijige(pete buttigieg;38sui)hezuinianchangdehouxuanrensangdesi(bernie sanders;78sui)lingxian,danshangweichanshengnengtiaozhantelangpudehouxuanren。suirancovid-19buhuichengweimeiguozongtongdaxuandezhongyaoyiti,danzhongmeimaoyiwentibiranhuishizhongzhongzhizhong。

美方如意算盤

乐彩网论坛静态版双色球2yue4ri,zaichangda6geyuedezongtongdanheanhuopanwuzuiqianyitian,telangpufabiaoguoqingziwen,yeweitazainiandizhengqulianrenzaoshi。tazhongshenduizhongguofaqiguanshuizhan,shiweile「duikangzhongguodajuqiequmeiguojiuyezhiwei」。telangpuxiangxintadecelvezouxiaole,liangguogangqianshutupoxingdeshoulunmaoxie,kebaohumeiguodegongrenjiqizhishichanquan,weiguokudailaishushiyimeiyuan,bingweizaimeiguobentushengchanhezhongzhidechanpinkaipiguangkuodexinshichang。tongshi,taxuancheng「womenyuzhongguodeguanxi,baokuoyuxijinpingzhuxideguanxi,yexudoukongqiandihao」。

telangpucengshixiantichumenghuanmaoxie,hangaisigefangmian:diyi,feichuzhongguomoshi,rugongyouzhijingjihezhengfuduijingjideganyu,baokuochanyezhengce;dier,zhongguoyaotingzhicaiyongshichanghuanjishudecelve,tarenweizheyouzhuwuzhongguoshixiankejidekuayueshifazhan;disan,zhongmeijingjituogou。telangpudeguandianshizhongguodefazhanwanquanyilaiwumeiguokuaguogongsidetouzijiqihoudeduihuamaoyi,jiurumeiguofuzongtongpengsizaihadexunyanjiusuoyanjiangzhongyinshutelangpusuoyan:「womenzaiguoqude25nianzhongzhongjianlezhongguo。」;disi,zhongguoyaoquanmianxiangmeiguoqiyekaifangshichang。

中國模式勝算

對比夢幻貿協,剛簽訂的貿協完全未提廢除中國模式。就像麥當勞同時擁有自營店和加盟店,通過保留低效率的自營店來建立和維護企業品牌一樣,中國一直保持國有企業和民營企業共存的經濟模式;中國政府認為,低效率的國有企業有助於維護社會穩定。在中國抗擊COVID-19的鬥爭中,國有企業再次發揮維護社會穩定的作用,例如部分國有房地產企業對中小微企業免除租金【註】

乐彩网论坛静态版双色球shoulunmaoxiededabufenneirongshiguanwuzhishichanquanbaohude,jitelangpuzaiguoqingziwenzhongsuoshuode「baohuwomendezhishichanquan」,luoliewumaoxiediyizhang,changda18ye。zhidezhuyideshi,zonggongzhiyou3yededierzhangshiguanwuzhongguodeshichanghuanjishucelve(yijimenghuanmaoxiedierxiang)。liangguotongyi,budeyaoqiuhuoshiyaduifanggongsitouguojishuzhuanyiyijinrubenguoshichang。zhongfangcengduocibiaoshi,weicengqiangpowaiguoqiyefenxiangjishuyihuodeshichangzhunru。danzhongsuozhouzhi,zhiyaozhongguozhengfuyouxiankaolvjishuzhuanyi,waiguokuaguogongsijiuhuiweiledaruzhongguoshichang,ertongyiyuzhongfanggongxiangjishu,yejiuxianrujingjixuesuoweide「qiutukunjing」(prisoner's dilemma)。liruzaiyongwuzhizaominyongfeijidehangkongdianzishebeixingye,meiguotongyongdianqigongsijuedingyuzhongguohangkonggongyejituanjianliheziqiye,bingzhuanrangjishu,yizhengquyuxingyelingdaozheluokeweiergongsijingzhengdejihui。yinci,suiranchutaileguanfangmaoxie,danyouwuzhongguoshichangqianlidezengchang,jishuzhuanyixianxiangrengjiangchixucunzai。

乐彩网论坛静态版双色球guanwutelangputichudedisangetiaojian──zhongmeijingjituogou,bizherenweizhezhengzaifasheng。youyisideshi,meiguoshangwubuchangluosizuijinbiaoshi,covid-19yiqingjiangjiasuzheyijincheng,jinguanxuduorenbutongyitadeguandian。

乐彩网论坛静态版双色球jingjixuejiapubianrenwei,jishiliangguojingjizhengzaijiebang,meiguogongsiyehuixuanzejianggongchangqianwangqitadichengbenguojia(ruyuenan),erbushiqianhuimeiguo,yinweizhehuizengjiayilaiquanqiugongyingliandemeiguogongsideshengchanchengben。qici,zheyitiaojianhenkenengqiahaomanzulezhongguoqiyedeliyixuqiu,laizizhongguodexinxingkuaguoqiyexiwangxueximeiguoqiyedefazhanjingyan。zaiguoqu40nianqijian,meiguoqiyeconghaiwaizhijietouzijilianfuwuwaibaomaoyizhonghuoyifeiqian。zhongguozhengfujinnianjijichangdao「yidaiyilu」jianshe,erwaizaidejingjichongjijiangtuidongbingjiasuzhongguoqiyedewaiqian。dangran,zheduizhongguozhengfuyeshiyixiangtiaozhan,rushuishoujianshao、shiyelvkenengshangsheng。zuihou,ruguozhongguoshizhongbaochiqishichangqianli,neimazhuanzhuwuzhongguoshichangdemeiguokuaguogongsirenghuixuanzeliuzaizhongguo。zuihaodelizijiushitesila(tesla),zaizhongguojianshechanneng,jikeyichukou,yegengfangbianjinruzhongguoshichang。gaigongsigupiaojinqidafushangyang,biaomingneidishichangdemeilijiqishijiegongchangdediwei。

角力形勢變數

telangpumenghuanmaoxiedezuihouyigetiaojian,jiushizhongguoxiangmeiguoqiyekaifangshichang,youguanneirongjianshoulunmaoxiezhongdesigezhangjie(disanzhiliuzhang, gongji53ye),baokuomeiguoduizhongguodeliangshihenongchanpinchukoumaoyi(disanzhang,gong23ye),xuejianmeiguoguanshuihezhongguodebaofuxingguanshuiyikuodazhongmeimaoyiguimo(diliuzhang,gong23ye),kaifangzhongguodejinrongshichang(disizhang,gong4ye)hezhongguohuilvzhidugaige,quebaorenminbihuilvyoushichangjueding,qiebushiyongjingzhengxinghuobibianzhilaihuodemaoyiyoushi(diwuzhang,gong3ye)。

suiranxijieshangweigongbu,dangoumainongchanpinshizuifuhezhongguoliyide。youwuzhongfangchengnuojiangdifeiguanshuibilei,zhongguocongmeiguorukoudeliangshihenongchanpinjiangdafuzengjia:2020nianjinkoueyingbi2017nianzengjiabushaowu125yimeiyuan;2021nianjinkouebi2017nianzengjiagujibushaowu195yimeiyuan,zhehuoyouzhuwutelangpulianren,jishi2016niandaxuanzhongtelangpudexuanminyebaokuobeiyiwangdezhizaoyegongren。zhiwuzhongguojinrongshichangkaifangdeneirongzejiaoshao。ruguoyizhongguoyinlianhevisaxinyongkazhijiandejingzhengweili,duimeiguodejinronggongsieryan,zhejiangshiyichangkuzhan,yinweizhongguoqiyeyifangmianxiguanwudichengben、dilirun,lingyifangmianyezaibuduanchuangxin,baokuojiwudaliangyidongyonghudedianzizhifu、dashujuyingxiaodeng。

liangguojuedingxianqianshudiyijieduanmaoxie,bufenyuanyinshizhongfanghuaiyitelangpuhuizaimeiguoguoneijingjibiaoxianqianjiahuominzhudanghouxuanrenshiliqiangjingdeshihouzhongqimaoyitanpan。2yuechuduitelangpulaishuodoushilihaoxiaoxi,zaidanheanzhongbeipanwuzui,meiguojingjijixubaochiqiangjing,gushijinglileyoushiyilailishizuijiudeyiciniushi(2009nian3yuezhijin,qianhouyu130geyue,lishizhijiuchaoguojiushiniandaichixu113geyuedeniushi), erminzhudangyezanweichanshengyigeqiangeryoulidehouxuanren。genjugailuopu(gallup)jiezhi2yue5ridezuixinmindiao,telangpudegongzhongzhichilvgaoda49%,weirenneixingao。ruguozheyiqingkuangjixu,meifangbuhuisihuidiyijieduanmaoxiezaizhongqitanpan,zhengrutelangpusuoshuo:「womenyuzhongguodeguanxi,baokuoyuxijinpingzhuxideguanxi,yexudoukongqiandihao。」danzhengruyingguoqianshouxiangweierxun(harold wilson)demingyan,「zhengzhiyixingqidouxianchang」,duzhebufangshimuyidai。

【註】:


陶志剛 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院滙豐基金教授(環球經濟與企業策略)

​(benwentongshiwuerlingerlingnianeryueshijiurizaiwu《xinbao》「longhushanxia」zhuanlan)

Author
Prof. Zhigang TAO
Prof. Zhigang TAO
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